Preparations for the Fifth IMO Greenhouse Gas Study

The International Maritime Organization has issued a document MEPC 83/7/2 outlining the preparatory work for the Fifth IMO Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Study. It revises previous suggestions and introduces draft terms of reference, timelines, and logistical arrangements. The study will provide critical input for the review of the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy, scheduled to begin in 2027 and conclude by 2028.

The Fifth Study aims to assess global emissions from international shipping and evaluate the progress toward IMO’s decarbonization goals. It builds upon the methodology and findings of previous studies conducted in 2009, 2014, and 2020.

Key elements of the draft terms of reference include:

1. Inventory of GHG Emissions (2018–2025): The study will examine emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other pollutants such as NOx, SOx, and black carbon.
2. Carbon Intensity Estimates: It will analyze CO2 emissions in relation to transport work to measure progress toward the 40% reduction target by 2030 (compared to 2008 levels).
3. Future Emission Scenarios (2025–2050): Projections will assess the impacts of current and potential regulations under business-as-usual conditions.

The study will use a combination of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches, including data from fuel sales and ship activity. Efforts will focus on reducing uncertainties by leveraging the IMO’s Data Collection System (DCS) and improving emission differentiation between international and domestic voyages. Updated Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) will reflect recent technological and economic trends in shipping.

Governance will be overseen by a steering committee composed of diverse stakeholders, ensuring adherence to scientific rigor and transparency. Funding for the study will come from voluntary contributions to the IMO GHG-TC Trust Fund.

The proposed timeline is as follows:

• Spring 2025: Development of draft terms of reference.
• Spring 2026: Finalization of terms and initiation of the tender process for study authors.
• Summer 2027: Interim findings presented at MEPC 86, aligning with the 2023 Strategy review.
• Spring 2028: Final report delivered to MEPC 87 for approval.

The Fifth IMO GHG Study is strategically significant, providing essential data to evaluate progress on IMO’s decarbonization targets. It will also inform decision-making on future policies and regulations for reducing GHG emissions in the maritime sector.

The MEPC is invited to:

• Consider the draft terms of reference and proposed timeline.
• Approve logistical arrangements, including the steering committee.
• Provide feedback to finalize the study’s preparations.

This study is expected to play a key role in ensuring that IMO policies are science-based and effective in addressing global maritime emissions.

LINK TO ACCESS THE DOCUMENT

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